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CMA利奇马最佳路径分析论文

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IP属地:浙江来自iPhone客户端1楼2021-05-07 20:00回复
    Bai, L., Tang, J., Guo, R., Zhang, S., & Liu, K. (2021). Quantifying interagency differences in intensity estimations of Super Typhoon Lekima (2019). Frontiers of Earth Science, 1-12.
    如题所示,CMA在论文中量化强度估计机构差异,并对利奇马生成、加强、登陆前、登陆后分段分析
    在前文中,CMA指出中国沿海国际交换站数量不足50个,JMA与JTWC只能主要基于卫星分析估计中国沿海热带气旋强度


    IP属地:浙江来自iPhone客户端2楼2021-05-07 20:01
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      CMA列举了登陆前分析多个原因,个人摘录整理翻译如下
      一、论文指出RAMMB DDIE分析法发现利奇马登陆前加强趋势
      found in the CI numbers obtained using the DDIE method, with the numbers increasing from 4.3 to 4.9
      二、论文认为利奇马内眼09:00 UTC以后加强
      the inner eyewall did not disappear, but strengthened after 09:00 UTC on 9 August
      三、论文指出2004年飓风Charley在眼壁置换周期风眼收缩时被德法低估
      Hurricane Charley (2004) was underestimated by the Dvorak technique owing to an eyewall replacement cycle and contraction of the eye


      IP属地:浙江来自iPhone客户端3楼2021-05-07 20:02
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        四、论文指出17:00 UTC三蒜岛941.4百帕、岙环941.6百帕,表明北侧、东侧气压梯度恒定,利奇马内核结构相对对称
        At 17:00 UTC on 9 August, the TC center was located on the western side of Sansuan Island at a distance of approximately 14 km, and on the south-eastern side of the Aohuan observatory at a distance of 13 km. The sea surface pressures observed by these two stations were almost the same (941.4 hPa and 941.6 hPa) at this time. These results indicate that the pressure gradient was constant on the northern and eastern sides of the TC center, which means that inner-core structures of Lekima were still relatively symmetric at this time.


        IP属地:浙江来自iPhone客户端4楼2021-05-07 20:03
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          五、论文指出16:20 UTC三蒜岛大约930百帕,表明利奇马当时不弱于930百帕
          The lowest sea surface pressure observed on Sansuan Island was approximately 930 hPa at 16:20 UTC, located approximately 12 km from the TC center, which indicates that the minimum sea surface pressure of Lekima was not higher than 930 hPa at this time.
          六、论文指出18:00 UTC岙环936百帕,表明利奇马登陆930百帕
          The lowest sea surface pressure observed at the Aohuan observatory was 936 hPa, located approximately 2 km from the TC center at 18:00 UTC. Therefore, the MSLP of 930 hPa at landfall in the CMA data set was reasonable


          IP属地:浙江来自iPhone客户端5楼2021-05-07 20:04
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            七、论文指出17:50 UTC三蒜岛两分钟50.5米每秒(站高79米)
            CMA引用Nolan et al. 研究,当风速计受到眼壁右侧直接命中时,热带气旋实际风速强度被低估了5%-20%不等
            The 2-min averaged maximum wind speed was observed as 50.5 m/s on Sansuan Island (station height 79 m) at 17:50 UTC, with a peak gust of 61.4 m/s. Earlier studies (Nolan et al. 2014) found that the actual peak intensity is underestimated by 5%–20% when anemometers experience a direct hit by the right side of the eyewall. This would suggest that the actual intensity of Lekima was stronger than the observed wind speed.


            IP属地:浙江来自iPhone客户端6楼2021-05-07 20:05
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              我们之前给CMA BST有关部门发邮件的时候那边给的回复是分析论文去年就能发


              IP属地:上海来自Android客户端7楼2021-05-07 23:23
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                然而好像仍然没看实测。


                IP属地:广东来自Android客户端8楼2021-05-08 07:24
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                  很合理,什么时候公开多点数据


                  IP属地:湖北来自Android客户端9楼2021-05-08 08:19
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                    合理


                    IP属地:江苏来自iPhone客户端10楼2021-05-08 15:44
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