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【讨论热带云团及数值预报】2019年7月

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今晚20点我们都是元老


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来自Android客户端1楼2019-07-01 00:00
    2


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    2楼2019-07-01 00:00
      【7月将有1至2个台风登陆我国】
        目前,我国南海和菲律宾吕宋岛以东海域海温均在30 ℃以上,且偏高1~1.5 ℃。根据模式预报,7月上半月,副高继续控制低纬热带洋面,不利于西太平洋台风生成,但南海可能有1个热带低压或台风生成;7月下半月,随着副高北上,南海和西太平洋台风活动将较前期相对活跃。预计7月将有2~3个台风生成,较常年同期(3.7个)偏少,其中有1~2个会登陆我国。(中国天气网)


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      来自Android客户端8楼2019-07-01 00:04
        坐等你百思不得釗哥鸭疯表演


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        来自Android客户端11楼2019-07-01 00:08
          ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
          TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

          Tropical Weather Outlook
          NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
          500 AM PDT Sun Jun 30 2019

          For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

          1. Satellite imagery is indicating that the area of low pressure
          located several hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of
          Mexico continues to become better organized, and a tropical storm
          may be developing. If this trend continues, advisories may be
          initiated later this morning on this system as it moves westward to
          west-northwestward at about 15 mph. For additional information on
          this low see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
          Service.
          * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
          * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

          2. An area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of next
          week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
          Conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system
          while it moves westward to west-northwestward.
          * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
          * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

          High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
          found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.

          Forecaster Latto/Beven

          可能七月首飓


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          来自Android客户端13楼2019-07-01 00:14


            富二代:南海季风低压先995登海南,随后中心被撞散,然后996登中越边境,至于04W嘛,是被南海季风低压给吞了。。。


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            14楼2019-07-01 00:30


              看EC的时候神奇地发现:北印那个登陆之后差不多快700公里才到达巅峰988


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              15楼2019-07-01 00:47
                问大家个问题,中央气象台官网里的这个每月的平均高温、平均低温、平均降水量的数据取的是那些年的平均,是1981到2010年的吗


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                来自Android客户端16楼2019-07-01 01:22
                  ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
                  TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

                  Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
                  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
                  1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 30 2019

                  Corrected to add header information for Tropical Storm Barbara

                  For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

                  The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
                  developed Tropical Storm Barbara, located several hundred miles
                  south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

                  1. An area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of next
                  week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
                  Conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system
                  while it moves westward to west-northwestward.
                  * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
                  * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

                  Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Barbara are issued under WMO
                  header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
                  Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Barbara are issued under WMO
                  header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

                  Forecaster Latto/Beven




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                  来自Android客户端18楼2019-07-01 03:18



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                    来自Android客户端19楼2019-07-01 05:45
                      登陆我国的台风就看7、8、9这三个月了,这三个月是西太的活跃期,台风有较大可能走偏西、偏北的路径


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                      来自Android客户端23楼2019-07-01 11:30
                        这个会不会是一个潜在的扰动(坐标5N 140E附近)图发不上来


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                        来自Android客户端24楼2019-07-01 12:06
                          距平又回到0.0线以上了,好评




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                          26楼2019-07-01 13:04
                            广东七月台风预测


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                            来自Android客户端27楼2019-07-01 13:24
                              96w可能要成台


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                              来自Android客户端28楼2019-07-01 13:24
                                国家气候中心



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                                来自Android客户端29楼2019-07-01 13:24
                                  1. An area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of next
                                  week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
                                  Conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system
                                  while it moves westward to west-northwestward.
                                  * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
                                  * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

                                  Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Barbara are issued under WMO
                                  header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
                                  Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Barbara are issued under WMO
                                  header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

                                  Forecaster Brown


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                                  来自Android客户端30楼2019-07-01 14:55
                                    你们觉得,1904木恩会什么时候死


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                                    31楼2019-07-01 15:38


                                      放图跑


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                                      32楼2019-07-01 16:01
                                        数值依旧不稳定,EC新报副高差不多直接去世,无论华南还是沿江流域的降水演变依旧是未知数,现在超过3天的预报可信度都极低,中长期天气预报变成天气乱报。


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                                        来自Android客户端33楼2019-07-01 17:07
                                          这降水可以




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                                          来自Android客户端34楼2019-07-01 17:47


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                                            来自iPhone客户端35楼2019-07-01 17:57


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                                              来自iPhone客户端36楼2019-07-01 18:01
                                                还想着出去玩,这下完蛋了


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                                                37楼2019-07-01 21:07


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                                                  来自iPhone客户端38楼2019-07-02 08:49


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                                                    来自iPhone客户端39楼2019-07-02 10:21
                                                      中太平洋




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                                                      来自Android客户端40楼2019-07-02 11:01
                                                        菲东这海温太高了!


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                                                        来自Android客户端41楼2019-07-02 12:06
                                                          北大北大你今年是不是想憋出顶超


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                                                          来自Android客户端42楼2019-07-02 12:12
                                                            死气沉沉的西太,唉




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                                                            43楼2019-07-02 12:19

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