: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 26.7N 159.4E, APPROXIMATELY 597 NM NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE AND AN AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT AN UNORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. A 310304Z ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICT THE DISTURBANCE BEING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.