阿森纳吧 关注:2,004,285贴子:66,495,358

[卫报技术长文]英国顶级俱乐部,数据是如何接掌一切的?

只看楼主收藏回复

How computer analysts took over at Britain'stop football clubs
在英国顶级俱乐部,数据是如何接掌一切的?


Manchester City has 11 people analysing players' data, but will a tech-drivenstatistical approach squeeze out intuition?
曼城有11个数据分析师在负责分析球员的数据,但是,太过依赖数据会不会削弱教练的直觉判断?


How long before we look at football not as acontest between 22 players, but as a battle between the data scientists on thetwo benches? Photograph: Steve Hickey/Alamy
现代足球,表面上是22个球员在场上比赛,背后是两队的分析师在场下的较量,这种情况已经多久了?


回复
本楼含有高级字体1楼2014-04-09 19:18
    1.文章很长,专业性很强。三月初的专栏,一直想等虎扑翻译团的翻译,没等到只有自己翻了。文章在推上很受欢迎,Tim Payton推荐过,现在已经被无数博主引用过了。
    2.专业名词太多了,翻译是粗的,大家有条件尽量看原文,并帮着纠正翻译。
    3.喜欢马丁内斯的进来看,你们不会失望的


    英文链接:
    http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/mar/09/premier-league-football-clubs-computer-analysts-managers-data-winning
    @仙山灵狐 @潘迷不要迷宫@焚色@喧嚣中的寂静 @l只小灰狼@kimi_arsenal


    收起回复
    本楼含有高级字体2楼2014-04-09 19:25
      沙发


      收起回复
      来自Android客户端3楼2014-04-09 19:26
        None of these appointments made headlines, but Moyes believes they could be crucial inunearthing the future stars of Manchester United – within the club and outside– and turning round his fortunes at Old Trafford.
        这些人事更迭都没上新闻头条,但莫耶斯相信,这些人对于曼联的未来相当重要,他们将发掘和培养曼联的未来之星——从俱乐部内部到世界各地——而这些未来之星,则是莫耶斯在曼联俱乐部成功的基石。


        回复
        6楼2014-04-09 19:29
          All 20clubs in the Premier League – and many in the lower divisions – now employ data analysts to make sense of this information. Manchester City has 11 of them. In 2012, Liverpool caused a stir by creating a newposition, director of research, for Ian Graham, who has a PhD in theoreticalphysics. The analysts are involved in pre-match preparation and post-gamedebriefs; they help to identify transfer targets and devise strategies fornurturing young players through the ranks. These developments have inspiredconfusion and even suspicion from many supporters, summed up by a recentheadline in the New Statesman:"Howthe spreadsheet-wielding geeks are taking over football."
          所有20支英超球队,包括许多低级别联赛的俱乐部,现在都聘请了数据分析师。曼城有11个数据分析师,而利物浦,在2012年新设立了一个岗位——研究主管,聘请了伊万·格兰汉姆,一名物理学博士。分析师们参与赛前的准备会,也提供赛后的咨询,他们帮助俱乐部甄别转会目标,还设计评估模型用以青年球员的培养。随着这些工作的开展,分析师的重要性受到极大的鼓吹,以至于那些数据支持们有点迷信了。《新政治家》最近的一个标题是:狂热的数据控是如何接管足球的。


          收起回复
          8楼2014-04-09 19:34
            We can't be blamed for being perplexed. Take the match last month between Arsenal and Bayern Munich, which Bayern won2-0. The following morning, the Guardian plucked out two statistics: ToniKroos, the German midfielder, completed more passes than the entire Arsenal midfield; meanwhile, Arsenal's Mesut Özil covered 11.69km, the third-highestdistance on the pitch. What the stats didn't say, but was blindingly obvious toanyone watching, was that Kroos was sensational and Özil had a stinker.


            迷恋数据可怪不得我们。就拿上个月阿森纳对阵拜仁慕尼黑的比赛来说,当拜仁2-0赢下后,第二天早上《卫报》采样了两个数据:托尼·克洛斯,德国中场,传球数比阿森纳的整个中场的传球数还要多,同时,阿森纳的厄齐儿,跑动距离11.68千里,全场最三。文章没有直说,可瞎子也看得明白:克洛斯是极好的,厄齐儿臭不可言!


            收起回复
            9楼2014-04-09 19:35
              These are simplistic examples, but they encapsulate a debate taking place at thehighest levels of many football clubs. In one corner are the "quants"or quantitative analysts: they are admirers of the statistician andelection-oracle Nate Silver; the Nobel prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman; and especially Billy Beane, the star of Moneyball,Michael Lewis's 2003 book about the data revolution in baseball. They believethat a football match can be translated into numbers and – much as a hedge-fundtrader does with the stock market – those figures can be crunched and scannedfor patterns. They don't think intuition should be removed from the game butthey have found that statistics are dispassionate in a way that humans never are.
              这样粗暴化的例子笔笔皆是。现在许多大俱乐部里也存在争议。一边是数据分析专家们,他们是大数据巫师“Nate Silver”、诺贝尔经济学奖得主,数学家兼心理学家Daniel Kahneman的追随者,尤其崇拜《点球成金》里的Billy Beane,在这本小说里,作者迈克·路易斯描写了发生在棒球界里的数据革命。他们相信一场足球比赛可以被“翻译”成数据,如同股市里的对冲基金一样,通过对数据的精确解读,能够得到其肯后的某种规律。他们不认为比赛的直观感受应该被摈弃,但他们发现数据更为客观,数据的“极度理性”——是人类永远没法做到的


              收起回复
              10楼2014-04-09 19:37
                As Beane, general manager of the OaklandA's, has said: "The idea that I [should] trust my eyes more than thestats, I don't buy that because I've seen magicians pull rabbits out of hatsand I know that the rabbit's not in there."
                正如比恩(点球成金),奥克兰棒球俱乐部的主教练所说:“相信自己的眼睛,而不是数字——这种观点我无法苟同。我亲眼看到魔术师从帽子里拎出三只兔子,但我知道,帽子里没有兔子。”


                回复
                11楼2014-04-09 19:38
                  In the other corner are the traditionalists, which is to say the owners and managersof the overwhelming majority of professional football clubs. They are aware of Moneyball – at least the film starring Brad Pitt– but don't believe the lessons of a stop-start sport such as baseball can beapplied to the fluid dynamics of a football match.
                  还有一边是传统的捍卫者,大部分足球俱乐部的老板及长期执教足球的主教练都是此类的代表。他们也知道《点球成金》——至少知道BradPitt主演的电影——但不相信像棒球这类静态比赛运动的数据分析,能够适用于快速激烈的足球运动。


                  回复
                  12楼2014-04-09 19:38
                    Most managers once played the game themselves at a high level and it is this fact,they contend, that gives them a special insight into what happens on the pitch and which players they recruit. This approach is summed up by an anecdote about Harry Redknapp, reportedin Wired magazine.When he was manager of Southampton, he turnedn to his analyst after a loss and said: "I'll tell you what, next week, why don't we get your computer to play against their computer and see who wins?"
                    大多数主教练都曾是球员,他们也大多在高级别联赛前踢过球。因此,他们能够敏锐的解读球场上发生的事情,也能明确知道自己需要引进什么样的球员。哈里·雷德纳普(老雷)的秩事最有代表性,《连线》杂志曾这样报导,当老雷还是南安普顿的主教练时,一次输球后他对分析师说:“下周为啥不用你的电脑和他们的电脑比比,看看谁会赢?”


                    回复
                    13楼2014-04-09 19:40
                      It turns out that Redknapp was not too wide of the mark: how long will it be before we look at football not just as a contest between 22 players or a clash between two managers, but as a battlebetween the respective brains trusts assembled on the two benches?


                      这话也倒没太离谱:不知道什么时候起,我们看待足球比赛,已经不把它当作是22个球员和2个主教练之间的较量,也是双方板凳席上“聪明的大脑们”之间的较量。


                      回复
                      14楼2014-04-09 19:40
                        mark


                        收起回复
                        来自Android客户端15楼2014-04-09 19:42
                          They've managed this despite being more frugal with wages than all of their rivals andnot splashing cash on big-name transfers. Instead they achieved success by developing brilliant home-grown talent – Wayne Rooney, Jack Rodwell and RossBarkley among them – and melding these players with unheralded stalwarts such as Leighton Baines and Leon Osman, who just happen to be statistical outliers.
                          埃弗顿的成功建筑在他们比竞争对手更为节制的薪资管理体系,也从不大手笔引援。相反他们坚持不懈地培养本土球员——鲁尼、罗德维尔、罗斯·巴克利为其中的翘楚,还签下一些实力派球员如拜恩斯、奥斯曼,这些人都是转会名单上的冷门,如今他们成为了球队的中坚力量。


                          回复
                          17楼2014-04-09 19:44
                            They have just come in from training. How much data do they collect in preparation for matches? "Every step on afootball pitch is measured now," says Martínez, in his unique Spanish-Lancastrian lilt. "We monitor each session with GPS and heart-rateprofiles. From a physical point of view, the most significant stats are probably the number of sprints, the sprint distance and the amount ofhigh-intensity efforts a player gets through. We look at these through the season and they give us a good indication of how fatigued a player is and the recovery he needs."
                            他们刚刚从训练场下来,他们在比赛前要收集分析有多少数据?“球场上的每一步都被记录”马丁内斯讲着西班牙口音的英文:“每一个训练环节都有GPS和心跳监测。身体数据,最有参考意义的是冲刺跑,冲刺跑的数次、距离,球员能承受的强度。赛季中通过这些数据,我们可以知道球员的疲劳情况,及他需要什么样的恢复。”


                            回复
                            22楼2014-04-09 19:53
                              The Everton manager is especially scathing of using data to identify transfertargets – the Moneyball dream of unearthing players whose utility might not always be immediately obvious. There is the famous story of Arsène Wenger signing Mathieu Flamini (the firsttime) partly due to a statistic that showed he ran 14km a match. Or Liverpool,under their then-director of football Damien Comolli, who spent heavily in 2011 to acquire Jordan Henderson and Stewart Downing, ostensibly because their"final-third regain" percentages – how often they recoveredpossession in the opponent's penalty box – were so high.
                              马丁内斯用数据寻找转会目标格外谨慎——《点球成金》里经常用数据挖掘未受注目的实力派球员。足球圈里最著名的例子是温格签下弗拉米尼(第一次),完全归功于弗拉米尼每场1.4万米的跑动数据。而利物浦,在他们的前足球总监达米恩的援意下,花重金引进亨德森和唐宁,就因为他们的“禁区逼抢”的百分比——在对方禁区内反抢球权的次数非常高。(?)


                              收起回复
                              本楼含有高级字体26楼2014-04-09 20:01
                                While no one contends that the use of datain football will ever be flawless, it certainly continues to become more astuteand ambitious. The father of the movement is wing commander Charles Reep, anaccountant in the RAF, who codified his first match in March 1950. He would eventually detail and analyse 2,200 games until the mid-1990s, spending around 80 hours on a single match, sometimes writing on rolls of wallpaper. Another pioneer was Valeriy Lobanovskyi, celebrated coach of Dynamo Kyiv and the USSR from the 1970s through to 2002, who spotted the potential of computers tochange football when processors were still the size of the team bus. Known for his fastidious match preparations and scientific scouting, he said: "A team that commits errors in no more than 15% to 18% of its actions isunbeatable."
                                没有人认为足球数据是完美无瑕的,但趋势是不可逆的。运动数据的鼻祖是皇家空军中校查尔斯·里普,他是皇家空军的一名会计,他从1950年3月开始编制第一场比赛的数据手册,到1990年中期,他已经完成了2200多场赛事的数据采样和分析,每场比赛耗时80多小时,有时候写了成叠的卷墙纸。另一个先锋是瓦列里·洛巴诺夫斯基,苏联基辅迪纳摩的功勋教头,从1970年代一直执教到2002,当计算机还叫计算器,个头像球队大巴这么大的时候,他已指出电脑在足球比赛里能发挥的作用。他以仔细挑剔的赛前准备和科技化的球探方式而著称,名言是:“一支球队只要失误率少于15%-18%,那就不可能被击败。”


                                回复
                                29楼2014-04-09 20:05
                                  Allardyce remains committed to metrics, bu this greatest contribution to the movement might just be the people he inspired.Bolton alumni now head the analytics departments of the most ambitious clubs inworld football: Ed Sulley is head of performance analysis at Manchester City,while Gavin Fleig is City's head of technical scouting; Dave Fallows is head ofrecruitment at Liverpool. These men could bejust as influential in shaping the future of their clubs as the managers,Manuel Pellegrini and Brendan Rodgers.
                                  阿勒代斯保持着对数据的兴趣,但他最大的贡献是带出一批人。博尔顿的“毕业生”现在活跃在各大豪门俱乐部中:EdSulley是曼城运动分析中心的主管,GavinFleig 是曼城的技术球探,DaveFallows是利物浦的转会总监。这些人可能和俱乐部的主教练佩莱格里尼和罗杰斯一样,对球队的未来有着深远的影响。


                                  回复
                                  34楼2014-04-09 20:12
                                    There is a clear shift of power taking place at some clubs, and the use of data analytics is at the heart of it. At a time when the average tenure of a PremierLeague manager is just over one year – seven have already been sacked this season –the idea of entrusting all elements of player recruitment and long-termstrategy to the manager is anachronistic. That certainly seems to have been the conclusion of the owners at ManchesterCity and Liverpool,as well as a club such as West Bromwich Albion, which shares power between the manager and a director of football, or sporting and technical director as they now call the position.
                                    在许多俱乐部,这是一个明显的变化,数据分析运用是变化的核心。当现代足球,一个英超主帅的寿命只有一年多——本赛季七个主帅已经下课——根据主教练喜爱作引援布置和俱乐部长期规划显然是不相宜的。像曼城、利物浦、甚至西布朗这样的俱乐部都确信,俱乐部权利分配需由主教练和足球总监,或叫技术主管这样岗位的人共同分担。


                                    回复
                                    35楼2014-04-09 20:14
                                      Chris Anderson, author of The Numbers Game and a political scientist at New York's Cornell University agrees."Incentives are incredibly important," he says. "The right incentives in my mind are the ones that keep this club healthy beyond nextSaturday and perhaps beyond this month and even beyond this season. The place where a manager has a long tenure – like David Moyes at Everton and Arsène Wenger atArsenal – that person's incentives for themselves and for the club arereasonably closely aligned. But, the world we live in, sometimes that personisn't the manager."
                                      克里斯·安德森,《数字游戏》的作者,纽约康奈尔大学的政治学专家,同意这个观点:“动机,无疑是非常重要的。”他说:“对于我,正确的动机是保持俱乐部良性生长,应该不是一星期,一个月,而是每个赛季。那些长期执教的主教练,如莫耶斯和温格,他们个人的动机和俱乐部的动机是契合的。但是世界上这样的主教练不常有。


                                      回复
                                      37楼2014-04-09 20:16
                                        Smith contrasts football unfavourably withAmerican sports, notably baseball and NFL. "Typically the guy dealing with the data in an English football club at the moment is a sports science graduate– which I am," he said. "But very often in Americayou might have somebody whowent to Harvard and did a law degree then did a computer science masters at MIT. One of the issues in English football is we don't spend enough on staff:quality or quantity. And that's partly because we spend so much money ontransfer fees, player salaries, agents' fees that there's not enough left. It'scrazy."
                                        史密斯对比了美国足球,那里足球还没有棒球和橄榄球受欢迎:“在英格兰作数据分析的人大多是运动学毕业,就像我”他说道:“而在美国,经常可以看到哈佛法学院的毕业生,或MIT的计算机硕士,来进行数据分析。这种落差的原因之一,是英国俱乐部不肯花钱,我们把更多的钱用在转会、球员工资、经纪人佣金上,造成这方面投入不足。这很疯狂。”


                                        收起回复
                                        39楼2014-04-09 20:20
                                          There are, in fact, some whip-smartmathematicians working in English football, but, because of the traditional approach of most clubs, they are more likely to be employed by a bettingcompany or a data generator such as Prozone. In an attempt to address thisdisparity, a fascinating initiative was launched by Manchester City'sGavin Fleig in August 2012. Called MCFC Analytics, the club released a largearchive of data collected by Opta from the 2011/12 season. It was an "opensource" call to arms for bloggers, PhD academics, anyone with aninquisitive mind and an interest in football who wanted to mess around with numbers.
                                          事实上,有一小撮主修数学的分析家在为英格兰足球工作。但是,因为足球俱乐部强大的传统势力,他们更多是被博彩公司或像Prozone这样的数据公司雇佣。为了弥补这种落差,一个创举由曼城的加文·弗兰于2012年八月发起:曼城数据研究专题!俱乐部开放了2011/2012赛季由OPTA公司收集的大量数据,用这些“开放资源”来吸引部落客、研究机构及任何有兴趣作足球数据分析的人。


                                          回复
                                          40楼2014-04-09 20:21
                                            The inspiration for the experiment wasbaseball, specifically Bill James, a janitor whose after-hours statisticalanalysis revolutionised that sport. "I want our industry to find a Bill James," Fleig told Simon Kuper. "Bill James needs data, and whoeverthe Bill James of football is, he doesn't have data because it costsmoney."
                                            受棒球数据的激励,尤其是比尔·詹姆斯的事迹,一个花数以万计时间在棒球上并最终革新棒球运动的人,弗兰说:“我希望我们的足球工业也能出一个比尔·詹姆斯”,他告诉西门·库珀:“比尔·詹姆斯需要数据,而足球界的比尔·詹姆斯,他无法获得数据,因为数据的成本很高。”


                                            回复
                                            41楼2014-04-09 20:22
                                              好帖留名


                                              收起回复
                                              来自Android客户端42楼2014-04-09 20:22
                                                MCFC Analytics ended after a year and it's hard to determine if it was a success or not. The interest was certainly there – more than 1,500 users accessed theinformation in the first 36 hours – but there was criticism of the"basic" dataset that was released. Dr Howard Hamilton, chiefexecutive of an Atlanta-based consultancy firm SoccermetricsResearch, who holds a PhD in aeronautics and astronautics from Stanford University, described it in a blog as"woefully inadequate".
                                                曼城数据分析研究专题在一年后结束,很难说它成功与否。但兴趣是存在的——超过1500个用户在最初的36小时内登陆并使用数据——但对开放数据的置疑也是存在的。Howard Hamilton博士,亚特兰大橄榄球数据研究公司的咨询部主管,斯坦福大学航天航空学博士,在博客上形容这些数据“可悲可怕的粗糙”。


                                                回复
                                                43楼2014-04-09 20:23
                                                  "It wasn't our deepest dataset by any means, but it was relatively deep ," says John Coulson, head of professional football services at Opta. Nevertheless, Coulson can't see the experiment being repeated in the near future: "It was a one-off thing:'Here's something to have a go at, get your teeth stuck in.' But it's notsustainable for us as a business to release all of that data every year."
                                                  “这当然不是我们最专业的数据,但已经是专业级别了”,约翰·考森,OPTA的足球数据服务中心主管告诉我们。但他不认为这项实验在可未来还会再有:“就这么一次:‘人总要尝试一下,咬着牙试试。’对我们这不可能是持续事件,作为商业公司我们不能每年开放自己的数据。”


                                                  回复
                                                  44楼2014-04-09 20:24
                                                    Football clubs are intensely secretive about the specifics of their use of data, especially where they believe theymight have a competitive advantage. So I ask Marcus du Sautoy, professor ofmathematics at Oxford University and keen Arsenal fan, what impact a greater numerical literacy could have on the game."Football is much more of a game of chess than people realise," he replies. "It isn't random what each team does from one game to the next.There are patterns. And the strength of mathematics is to change an activity intonumbers and to spot patterns and predict things into the future. That's essentially what the hedge-fund guys are doing."
                                                    英超俱乐部都把数据当情报来保密,尤其是那些相信数据能让他们更有优势的俱乐部。所以我询问了Marcusdu Sautoy,牛津大学的数据统计学教授,阿森纳的死忠,他对于数据作用比赛的观点相当赞同:“足球与下棋很像,这点远超人们的认知。”他说:“一支球队的赛季表现绝不是机率事件,而是连贯的、有模式可循的事件。数据可以将表现数字化,找出规律,再进一步预测未来。这就是现在大俱乐部在做的事情。


                                                    收起回复
                                                    45楼2014-04-09 20:25


                                                      收起回复
                                                      来自Android客户端46楼2014-04-09 20:26
                                                        "Football is incredibly conservative," says du Sautoy. "Having people who come from adifferent mindset could actually give a team like Arsenal or Liverpool a real edge." Then, at least half-seriously, he ventures: "If Wengerwants a mathematician on the bench at Arsenal, I'd be very happy to comealong."
                                                        “足球太保守了”Du Sautoy说:“让各领域的人进入足球,如同阿森纳和利物浦所做的那样,这种开放性会让俱乐部成为先驱,获益无数。”最后他半开玩笑的说:“如果温格需要一个数据学家,我乐于效力!”


                                                        回复
                                                        48楼2014-04-09 20:27
                                                          It is easy to become carried away with the possibilities of data analytics. At theElite Minds in Sports Analytics Summit, another speaker was Brian Prestidge,head of analytic development at Bolton Wanderers. He revealed that, since theirgoalkeeper had started studying the stats on the opposing team's penalty taker,he was actually saving fewerpenalties (just 9% inthe last two seasons). "We took away the human element, the player'sinstinct," said Prestidge. "But that's not to say there are noadvantages in analysis."
                                                          为数据分析前景着迷是很容易的。在阿森纳运动分析学峰会上,另一个发言者是BrianPrestidge,博尔顿的数据中心主管,他揭示说,打从他们守门员开始研究对手的点球手数据后,他真的扑出了一些点球(仅管两个赛季的点球扑救成功率只有9%)。“我们摒弃了人的因素,比如球员的直觉,”他说:“但不是说人的因素就没有作用了。”


                                                          回复
                                                          49楼2014-04-09 20:28
                                                            Of course, a manager will never admit thata number-cruncher might do his job just as well – or, heretically, even better– than he can. "And if a manager is doing something sophisticated oranalytical, he won't want to advertise that to the world," says Anderson. "It makesthem look less good and it makes them look geeky, too. In this manly world offootball, you don't want to be known as a pinhead. That's the worst ofeverything!"
                                                            当然,主教练可不认为数字串可以取代他的工作,更甚者,比他工作得更好。“如果主教练做着复杂的分析,他可不想广而告之。”安德森说:“这让他们看上去不像个好的教练,而像个分析师,在足球圈你可不想让别人认为你是个傻瓜,这可是最糟糕的事了。”


                                                            回复
                                                            51楼2014-04-09 20:30